BMC Global Select August 2026

Microsoft, Nvidia, Flatexdegiro, and Bank Pekao were the greatest contributors to BMC Global Select during August. The weakest contributors were SK Hynix, TSMC, Everus, and Kandenko. At the end of the month, we traveled to Paris to meet French bank BNP Paribas. This meeting confirmed our investment hypothesis that BNP Paribas is a quality bank that trades at a considerably lower valuation than its European competitors. We believe this exciting French Special Situations stock offers good upside of 30% in 12 months. Looking at the weakest contributors during the month, we see the connection of the robust investment trend in data centers. While we have seen large percentage increases in tech stock prices for a longer period, volatility has also increased, with investors more tempted to take home profits.

Key market events and trends

The MSCI World (EUR) index rose by 1.7% in August and is now up 15.6% so far this year. As you might remember, we started the year anticipating 14% profit growth for 2026—which we have since revised to 22%, with a further 14% growth expected for 2027. This solid profit performance has pushed the equity market upward, despite headwinds from higher energy costs and rising long-term interest rates. The US recently "celebrated" USD 40 trillion in national debt, which has contributed to rising credit demand, pushing bond yields up further.

Q2 2026 reports surpassed expectations by a fair margin. However, the results were bolstered somewhat by unrealized value increases in SpaceX and Anthropic, which companies like Alphabet and Amazon have accounted for as revenue. Adjusted for these non-recurring items, underlying profits grew by a solid 24% in both the US and Europe.

We also note that Nvidia's revenue growth of 100% and management's guidance for 70% sales growth next year—far exceeding analyst expectations—which offers additional support for the AI expansion theme.

We expect that the markets will continue to rise during the second half of the year, albeit with the usual volatility in September. As we move into Q4 2026, attention will focus even more on the mid-terms in the US and whether the Trump administration can maintain its control of the House and the Senate.

Portfolio changes

During August, we sold US insurance firm Progressive and instead bought the US's Estée Lauder as a Special Situations holding. Over the past four years, Estee Lauder has not been rewarded by the market and its share price is at its lowest point over those years. The explanation lies in turnover and profits not have risen in recent years. We believe both turnover and profits will pick up from this point, making this a great time to buy back into a company we haven't owned for several years. The well-known brand Estée Lauder offers a range of great cosmetics products. We anticipate upside of more than 30% in Estee Lauder, based on the relatively new CEO's ambition to turn around the company and increase both turnover and profitability. We also took a position in the US's Cisco over the time of its report. Unfortunately, this did not work in our favor and we chose to exit the holding. 

The fund's positioning

The key investment themes that drive future returns in our global fund are Japan, Poland, AI investments in data centers and electricity infrastructure, securities trading, and savings. One exciting theme for the fund stems from the Japanese government's wish that listed companies turn more profitable. The government's reforms will compel companies to focus more on increasing their profit margins and reducing cross-ownership, which should lead to rising share prices. Poland is one of the most exciting European markets, offering a combination of excellent GDP growth and increasing savings. The two Polish banks we own benefit from the country's economic activity and the rising savings levels among the Polish population. A major theme for the fund is, of course, all the data center investments—a global phenomenon that also bolsters several industries. Everything from chips to construction to energy supply and more. We hold many companies that are directly or indirectly exposed to AI investments. Another fascinating trend is securities trading in growth markets. The appeal of the stock markets we have bought into is that they earn money every day through trading and that they love volatility. When the equity markets are uncertain, investors tend to increase their trading of securities, offering greater revenues.

* MSCI AC World NTR USD in EUR