BMC Global Select April 2026

In last month's newsletter, we noted our belief that we have exactly the right portfolio, provided the conflict in the Middle East does not escalate further. Although the tension and unrest persists, it doesn't seem to be worsening, and this month we can see a significant upswing in markets around the world and for our fund in particular. The strongest contributors to the fund's performance in April were Alphabet, Amazon, and Prysmian. These upturns have in common that they are primarily driven by AI investments in various forms; investments in this revolutionary new tech are unprecedented, spurring demand for many of our companies. We also see sizable investments in production capacity and new infrastructure in the US, which add further support and bolster our cyclical investments. In Asia, we note that both the Singapore and Hong Kong stock markets—two companies we have invested in—have solid growth outlooks, so it is not only the US where we see growth but also that our companies are generally performing splendidly, regardless of where in the world they are. 

Nearly all shares of our companies were up during the month, but among the weakest performers were HCA Healthcare and Wheaton. HCA issued a quarterly report stating that the flu season had proved a headwind during January, while Wheaton was affected by the gold price having declined slightly during April. 

Key market events and trends

MSCI World rose 9% in USD during April, its best monthly return since November 2022. The conflict in the Middle East contributed to a moderate pick-up in the oil price, but the bond and equity markets largely chose to ignore the geopolitical tumult. 

Higher energy costs are likely to have an impact on inflation, burden economic activity, and weaken the already fragile consumer sentiment. Regardless, the markets chose to focus elsewhere. Consumers hold record-large savings that can be channeled to some extent into the equity markets.

The build-up of AI infrastructure continues apace and is accelerating, with semiconductors still the primary beneficiary of this expansion phase. In 2022, industry analysts predicted that the semiconductor market would reach annual revenues of USD 1,000bn by 2030. It now appears this level will be reached this year, with continued strong growth in 2027 before a slower pace is expected in 2028.

Company results corroborate this positive scenario. S&P 500 companies' profits for Q1 2026 were up by 28%, which was double the 14% expected at the start of the year. In Europe, Stoxx 600 companies saw profit growth of 7%, with cyclical consumption proving the most prominent factor. The automotive sector has recovered from its weak 2025, although this was cyclical rather than structural. European industry—to which our fund has good exposure—is seeing a more sustainable growth trend.

Despite the strong share price movements, valuations are attractive. Based on a forward-looking P/E of 18.5x for MSCI ACWI, forecasted profit growth of 28% in the USA, and the accelerating AI-driven revenues, the market is far from overvalued. 

Portfolio changes

During April, we sold Lennox (a Special Situations holding), replacing it with a new Special Situations stock in the form of TD Synnex, as we simply see greater upside potential in this company. TD Synnex is one of the world's largest IT distributors, and the stock market has somewhat overlooked the company's contract manufacturing division and its sales to the data center market, which will drive both the company's profits and its valuation much higher. Since buying in, we have already seen a 15% return on our investment in TD Synnex and we see further potential for the share price to climb higher.

The fund's positioning

The fund's strategy is to focus on investing in a diversified collection of the world's finest companies, seasoned with our Special Situations stocks. The fund is now well positioned and our companies' reports are coming in just as we expected. We are positive for the rest of the year. Should the conflict in the Middle East be resolved and the oil price thus drop back to normalized levels, we would anticipate a further boost to the global economy and stock markets.

*MSCI All Country World NTR $ in EUR